Celtic have spent recent seasons treating Champions League qualification as a problem they cannot fix. Even against that record the exit to LASK stands out as a collapse of rare scale.
Four goals clear with less than an hour still to play across the two legs, they finished on the wrong side of a five four aggregate. A place in the league phase was theirs to protect and they gave it away through individual errors, poor choices and a side that ran out of answers once the pressure rose.
Martin O’Neill accepted the blame afterwards. The failure looks larger than one coach or one night. It points at the squad that was built, the transfer calls made and whether the club was ready for its biggest examination of the season.
Who carries the blame after the night in Austria
O’Neill took full responsibility. In practice the board, the manager and the players all share it.
Players should not surrender a four goal lead with less than an hour left. Individual mistakes and a drop in intensity cost them on the night.
The substitutions also look weak. Each change made the team thinner, and like England under Thomas Tuchel against Argentina they were left without attacking options when the game turned.
They were more ready than last season. Kasper Hogh, Camilo Duran, Mika Baur and Haissem Hassan arrived for about £32m and lifted the starting XI. Gaps remained all the same.
Arne Engels was expected to leave and no replacement was in place for LASK. Kieran Tierney still has no backup at left back. Alistair Johnston’s injury came late, yet a stand in could have been lined up sooner given he had been close to leaving. Good arrivals were not enough to make the squad complete for this tie.
Ending a Champions League playoff with Dane Murray, Liam Scales, Anthony Ralston and Luke McCowan on the pitch shows how thin the group still is.
Putting off the weekend Premiership match with St Johnstone may also have hurt. The side looked spent in the second half and extra time in Austria. Extra minutes at the weekend might have helped some of them.
What the exit means for the last week of the window
Missing the Champions League hits the final days of the window hard. Qualification would have locked in another £40m from the competition. Two seasons ago the club made around £75m from its run.
With a place secured they expected to spend more than £20m this week, including moves for Torino’s Gvidas Gineitis and Slovan Liberec’s Ermin Mahmic. Those deals now look harder. Gineitis at about £10m looks especially unlikely.
Champions League football changes the market. The money is large and the competition itself draws players who might otherwise skip the Scottish league. As late as Tuesday afternoon intermediaries were still offering high level European talent who wanted a Champions League club this season. That offer has gone.
Celtic still want two central midfielders, a goalkeeper, a left back, a right back and perhaps a left winger before next Thursday. That is a heavy list for one week and a small recruitment group. Work on the gaps continues.
Money is still likely to go on a midfielder and a goalkeeper. Other roles may now be filled by loans. The board, recruitment staff, O’Neill and Maloney are due to meet this week to set the plan for the closing days of the window.
How the result hits UEFA coefficients
Celtic’s failure also lands on other Premiership clubs with European aims.
UEFA ranks associations by club results in continental competition over five years. That ranking decides how many European places each country receives.
Wins and draws score the same across Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, two points for a win and one for a draw. Bonus points are richer in the top competition.
Finishing first in the Europa League league phase would bring six bonus points, the same as finishing last in the Champions League table.
Four years ago Scotland sat ninth in Europe, behind only England, Spain, Germany, France, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands and Belgium. That ranking gave the champions a direct Champions League route and an extra qualifying place for the runners up. Scotland now sit 18th and look set to lose one of five European places this season. Champions will no longer enter at the playoff stage. They will face three qualifying rounds before the league phase.
How the club can stop another year of protest
Last season ended with silverware yet felt grim for many around the club. No Champions League place and weak windows led to protests against the board, merchandise boycotts, a manager walking away, ultras bans, a sacking and a patchy side that O’Neill still dragged to a domestic double.
The cleanest way to avoid a repeat is for the board to spend properly and build a squad that can win this season’s Europa League. Whether they have the same hunger is another question. The financial return is smaller than the Champions League. Supporters will want the outlay anyway, and O’Neill may be the person who can push the hierarchy to treat the competition as a real target rather than a fallback.
Fans also want a clearer structure. Board members still sit in transfer talks and football operations. Head of football Paul Tisdale left in January and has not been replaced. There is still no head of recruitment. The club is short of first team analysts compared with the Brendan Rodgers years.
Recent signings and a decent domestic start had begun to ease tension with supporters. In Linz chairman Brian Wilson sat and drank with fans in the afternoon. Much more repair work is needed now.
Can Celtic reach the Champions League again soon
If they win the league this season, next year’s Champions League path gets harder. They would enter at the second qualifying round and need three ties, six matches, to reach the league phase.
This playoff was the last near term chance to reach the competition with only one two legged hurdle. It became the sixth straight failure in Champions League qualifying.
Celtic still see themselves as a Champions League club by size and status. It may be some time before the team plays in the tournament again.
Winning the Europa League remains the most direct route back in.
