Aston Villa and Liverpool face each other on Friday night in a match that could heavily affect the Premier League battle for Champions League places. Both clubs are level on points and know that finishing in the top five would secure a place in next season’s competition.
Villa and Liverpool risk losing their cushion
Villa and Liverpool have both lost momentum at a dangerous stage of the season. Across their last six combined matches, they have managed only one win, allowing the teams behind them to move closer.
By the end of the weekend, their advantage over the nearest challengers could be cut to just one point. For Villa, the run-in looks especially difficult, with Liverpool at home and Manchester City away on the final day.
That has created concern that a team sitting only three points off the top shortly before the new year could yet miss out on the top five.
Europa League final gives Villa another route
Villa still have a second path into the Champions League. If they beat Freiburg in the Europa League final in Istanbul, they will qualify regardless of their league finish.
That result would also matter to Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford. According to the scenario described, if Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth, the Champions League place linked to fifth would move down to sixth.
That could give one of those clubs a historic chance. Bournemouth and Brentford have never played European football, while none of the three have reached the Champions League.
Sixth place may depend on Villa’s final position
The situation changes if Villa win the Europa League and finish fourth by moving above Liverpool. In that case, only the Premier League’s top five would qualify for the Champions League.
That makes Friday’s match even more important. A Villa win would increase their chance of overtaking Liverpool, while also changing what sixth place could mean for the rest of the league.
Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford will therefore be watching closely. They need Villa to succeed in Europe, but their league position must also fall in the right place.
Villa face another tense finish
Villa know how painful the final stretch can be. Last season they narrowly missed the Champions League after a controversial final-day defeat at Manchester United.
Morgan Rogers had a goal ruled out after being judged to have kicked the ball from Altay Bayindir’s hands. Manchester United then scored twice late on, leaving Villa sixth and behind fifth-placed Newcastle only on goal difference.
This season, Villa had a 10-point cushion inside the top five as recently as mid-April. That lead has now disappeared, and the match against Liverpool may decide whether they hold their position or face another late collapse.
Final day could create strange incentives
Depending on Friday’s result and the Europa League final, Brentford and Brighton could even face unusual final-day calculations.
Brentford finish their season away to Liverpool. If Brentford are sixth and Villa are Europa League champions, a Liverpool win could help keep Liverpool fifth, which may protect sixth place as a Champions League route.
Brighton also have a possible complicated scenario against Manchester United. If they are sixth and need United to stay above Villa, the table could create a situation where the wider Champions League picture matters as much as their own result.
