The big picture: points on the table and current gaps
McLaren’s first shot at the crown fizzled in Baku, where it banked only six points. Even so, with 12 wins (seven 1–2s) in 17 races, it leads on 623 points; Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull trail on 290, 286 and 272, respectively — Red Bull are already out of the fight. With seven rounds left, including three sprints, a maximum of 346 points remains (43 at a normal weekend, up to 58 at a sprint).
The clincher: what secures the title in Singapore
The math is straightforward now: score 13 points at Marina Bay and McLaren are champions again (a 10th constructors’ title, second in a row). In practice, a podium by either Oscar Piastri or Lando Norris will do it, something McLaren failed to achieve only in Canada and Azerbaijan this year.
If McLaren stumble: what Mercedes must do
Even with a zero from McLaren, Mercedes would need to outscore them by 31 points to push the party to Austin, realistically requiring a double podium. The Silver Arrows have managed that only once in 2025 (Montreal: Russell P1, Antonelli P3).
Ferrari’s long shot
Ferrari must beat McLaren by 35 points to stay alive: essentially a win plus another podium from the second car. Given the Scuderia have no victories this season and Lewis Hamilton is still chasing a first Ferrari podium, that scenario looks remote.
