With the 2024 NFL Draft just around the corner, let’s delve into some predictive analysis using ESPN’s Draft Day Predictor. This tool aggregates data from expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. ratings, and specific team needs to calculate the likelihood of where players might land. It’s a unique way to view potential draft outcomes and the availability of top talent in various positions.
As the event nears, anticipation builds around the Chicago Bears’ expected choice of USC’s quarterback Caleb Williams as the top pick. Our focus will also extend to other critical queries: identifying the potential second overall pick, exploring wide receiver options for the Buffalo Bills, and evaluating if quarterbacks like Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. might slide into the later rounds. Additionally, we’ll examine selections made by fans using our NFL mock draft simulator, providing a comprehensive preview of potential draft scenarios.
Analyzing Top Picks and Player Odds
Jayden Daniels is currently leading as the probable choice for the No. 2 pick with a 49% chance, closely followed by Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy with 21% and 15% probabilities respectively. The other candidates include Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr., although their chances might be overstated. Despite some uncertainties in predictions, it is almost certain that Williams will be the first pick, and the Commanders are expected to choose a quarterback second.
The model suggests Daniels as the frontrunner, possibly making him the odds-on favorite if we adjust for the overestimated probabilities of Williams and Harrison. However, securing him is not guaranteed.
The prospects for top wide receivers are also strong. Harrison, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze are all likely to be picked early, with Odunze having a 25% chance of remaining available by the 10th pick. He has a higher likelihood of being available at the 9th or 8th picks.
Teams such as the Cardinals or Chargers considering a wide receiver will need to evaluate the risk they are willing to take. A trade with quarterback-seeking teams like the Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders might be necessary to secure a top receiver. Alternatively, they could consider a lower-tier player like Brian Thomas Jr., who is likely to be available later in the draft.
Exploring the Draft Dynamics: McCarthy’s Prospects and Trade Scenarios
Among the quarterbacks expected to be picked early in the first round, McCarthy presents the most variable outcomes. He could potentially be chosen as high as the second pick, though this is less likely compared to Daniels or Maye. McCarthy holds at least a 4% likelihood of being picked at any position from the second to the ninth pick, largely due to possible trades. With quarterback-needy teams positioned at the 2nd, 3rd, and possibly 6th or even 7th picks, these spots are considered his probable destinations, although any other team could trade down.
Currently, McCarthy is most likely to be selected at the 6th pick, with a 31% probability. Despite the potential for trades affecting the 4th and 5th picks, he might end up being chosen by the Giants if no trades occur at those positions.
There is a high chance (92%) that McCarthy will be picked within the top 10 selections. If he remains available, the Vikings have an 8% chance of acquiring him at the 11th pick without needing a trade, thereby preserving their other first-round pick (23rd overall).
Penix and Nix, two quarterbacks from the Pac-12, are also under consideration and could have varied draft outcomes. They might be selected anywhere from the 11th to 13th picks by quarterback-seeking teams or might drop to the second round. The Draft Day Predictor suggests that both quarterbacks could be great acquisitions for teams like Los Angeles without the need for trading up.
Nix, in particular, might fall to the later picks; he has a 33% chance of being available at the 44th pick and a 12% chance at the 51st. Penix, however, has a 10% chance of still being available at the 44th pick for the Raiders and only a 2% chance to remain until the 51st pick for the Rams.
NFL Draft: Analyzing Potential Late First Round Picks and Strategies
Let’s analyze players with a 5% to 20% chance of being selected in the first round—considered long shots, yet feasible. Leading this group are two wide receivers: Xavier Legette from South Carolina (19%) and Keon Coleman from Florida State (13%). Other prospects include Missouri’s cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (12%), edge rusher Marshawn Kneeland from Western Michigan (11%), offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten from Washington (9%), linebacker Edgerrin Cooper from Texas A&M (9%), and Michigan’s running back Blake Corum (6%).
Starting at pick No. 28, the chances are slim (12%) the Bills could land a top-tier player like Thomas, but they might still find quality in the third tier of this receiver-rich draft. Potential options at this spot include Xavier Worthy from Texas (61%), Adonai Mitchell (72%) from Georgia, and others like Ladd McConkey (82%), Legette (94%), and Coleman (95%)—all more likely to be available.
Buffalo’s acute need could lead them to select a wide receiver with each of their first two picks, providing ample choices at pick No. 60. Candidates like Legette (11%) or Coleman (24%) might still be on the board, alongside others from schools like Florida, Oregon, Michigan, Washington, and North Carolina.
The No. 10 pick is projected to be a pivotal spot for the Jets, possibly selecting Georgia tight end Bowers (33% chance), aligning his ranking with team needs. If not picked by the Jets, the next likely spots for Bowers are with the Vikings at No. 11 (17%) and the Bears at No. 9 (16%).
Jets’ Draft Strategy: Analyzing Potential Moves and Player Availability
If the Jets are considering adding an offensive lineman to increase depth behind veteran tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, they could potentially trade down to recover the second-round pick lost in the Aaron Rodgers deal while still acquiring a top-tier player.
Players like Latham from Alabama, Fuaga from Oregon State, and Fashanu from Penn State might still be available at the 15th pick, with fairly good odds. However, Washington’s Fautanu might last till the 18th pick, offering the Jets flexibility to move down to the late teens, though securing a player is not certain.
Corum, although a long shot for the first round, could realistically be selected by the third round’s end. Texas’ Jonathon Brooks and Florida State’s Trey Benson are projected to be chosen sooner, around the late second round, as per Draft Day Predictor’s insights.
For edge rushers like Alabama’s Dallas Turner, predictions vary slightly between the 8th and 9th picks, influenced by team needs for pass-rushers and wide receivers, such as Atlanta potentially opting for a receiver like Odunze at the 8th pick, thereby pushing Turner down.
Additionally, ESPN’s mock draft simulator helps create a fan mock draft by awarding players to teams based on the most common selections by users, providing insights into public opinion and strategy for the upcoming draft.
NFL Draft Strategy and Surprising Picks Analysis
Commanders Opt for Daniels with Strong Support
The selection of Daniels by the Commanders at No. 2 was anticipated, but the level of preference he received was remarkable. In simulations comparing choices among Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy, 82% of Commanders fans chose Daniels—a significant show of confidence.
Giants Go for Odunze, Bypassing McCarthy
At the No. 6 pick, the Giants made a notable decision by not selecting McCarthy, despite the availability of the Michigan quarterback and rumors about their interest in a QB. Instead, they picked wide receiver Odunze, continuing with Daniel Jones as their quarterback.
Mock Draft Limitation Exposed
A key limitation in this mock draft was the absence of trade options. Consequently, after Giants fans overlooked McCarthy, he unexpectedly dropped to the Vikings at No. 11, a scenario less likely in a real draft setting with trades.
Broncos Secure Nix Early to Avoid Risks
Faced with a dilemma at No. 12 and the top quarterbacks off the board, Broncos fans opted not to gamble. They chose Nix, rather than risking the chance of him or Penix being available in the later rounds, securing their pick without delay.
Surprises and Strategies from Nos. 17-20
In the recent draft, the Jaguars, Bengals, Rams, and Steelers made their choices at picks Nos. 17-20, selecting Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins, Georgia tackle Amarius Mims, Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton, and Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton respectively. While these picks are not considered shocking, they were all selected at the start of their possible draft range as indicated by the Draft Day Predictor.
These selections were influenced by a few factors. For instance, Jer’Zhan Newton’s higher evaluation on the Scouts Inc. simulator may have boosted his draft position compared to the Predictor’s forecast. Additionally, other potential top picks like Latham and Byron Murphy II from Texas were less available in simulation drafts, which may have skewed their selection frequency downwards.
Despite some players still being available, the four draftees were evidently preferred by fans, even if their selection seemed slightly premature.
Unexpectedly, none of the teams in the 17-20 range chose Thomas, who was then picked by the Miami Dolphins at No. 21. This was notable as wide receiver is not an immediate need for the Dolphins, given their current roster including Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, hinting at potential future planning by the team.
