Automatic route harder, qualification not gone
Belgium now control Group J after a composed win in Cardiff, so the simple path has closed for Wales. Even so, November still offers hope. If Wales beat Liechtenstein away and then North Macedonia in Cardiff, second place is within reach. That would avoid relying only on a spring playoff.
Nations League safety net looks promising
Craig Bellamy’s first six matches included a strong Nations League run. That campaign should provide a playoff route next March if Wales finish third. The condition is simple to understand. Two of England, Germany, Spain, Portugal or France must end first or second in their groups. The probability is high given their strength.
Belgium showed the gap at key moments
Wales started fast and led, yet Belgium stayed calm and delivered when it mattered. The first penalty will fuel debate, VAR confirmed it and Kevin De Bruyne converted with total composure, then repeated the feat. Wales created chances that were closer to fifty fifty. Belgium took theirs with clinical precision.
November twists still possible
Bellamy urges tests against elite opponents, and England plus Belgium have supplied hard lessons that can help the group grow. Another twist is not impossible. Belgium must travel to Kazakhstan on 15 November, with a long flight, an artificial surface, and cold conditions in Astana. The final Belgian match is at home to Liechtenstein, which limits dreams of an automatic Welsh leap, yet Wales can still control part of their fate.
What Wales need to do now
Win in Liechtenstein, then beat North Macedonia at home. Maintain focus in key moments, manage game states better, and convert pressure into goals. Automatic qualification looks unlikely, but a playoff berth remains a realistic goal if November goes to plan.
