Arsenal hold a four point cushion at the top and current models make them clear favourites. Opta’s supercomputer gives the Gunners a 66 percent chance of finishing first. The run of eight straight wins in all competitions and six consecutive clean sheets has built real separation.
Defence driving the prediction
Since the September break Arsenal have conceded only twice. Erling Haaland is the only player to score from open play against them this season. If the trend continues Mikel Arteta’s side are on pace to allow around 13 league goals which would better Chelsea’s 2004 to 2005 record of 15.
How many points are needed
Gary Neville argues that a total in the high 80s should secure the title. Opta’s projected table is even more bullish on the gap. On current performance levels a haul of 70 points could be enough which would undercut the Premier League record low of 75 from Manchester United in 1996 to 1997. Opta currently projects Arsenal to finish on 80 points with an 11 point margin over Liverpool and Manchester City.
What if Liverpool and City surge
If Liverpool return to last season’s points per game they could still reach 85 from here. If Manchester City regain the rate that delivered four straight titles they also reach 85. Neville’s high 80s threshold therefore looks realistic even if both rivals improve.
Arsenal’s margin for error
Based on the current pace Arsenal project to 93 points which gives them roughly seven points of leeway against an 85 point chase. Football rarely follows a straight line but the numbers show the leaders control the race.
